Canberra, Friday 22 February 2002

Study released into Malaria resurgence

Changes in temperature through global warming are not the cause of a resurgence of malaria in mountainous East Africa, according to a study, co-authored by an ANU scientist, published today.

The paper, in Nature, has found no connection between climate change and spread of the disease in the East African highlands as was previously believed. Dr David Stern from the ANU Centre of Resource and Environmental Studies thinks the widely held belief, that increased temperatures would extend the range of the malaria-carrying mosquito into cooler regions, further from the equator and higher up into mountain, is oversimplified.

To determine whether temperature had an affect in tropical mountain areas, Dr Stern and collaborators investigated weather records from the past century in four high-altitude sites in Kenya where malaria was on the increase. The data showed no significant change in temperature, rainfall, vapour pressure or the number of months suitable for transmitting malaria.

Dr Stern finds the view that there is a connection between climate change and malaria in mountainous tropical regions surprising as temperature is expected to change least in these regions as a result of global warming.

"Temperature is expected to change the least at the equator, with a gradient towards the poles where most temperature change is expected," he said. Instead Dr Stern believes the spread of the disease is due to increased resistance to anti-malarial drugs first introduced in the 1930s.

"This theory has not been tested, but our findings rule out the possibility of human-induced climate change as being the reason," Dr Stern said.

"However, it does not rule out the possibility of spread into temperate areas, or for similar diseases such as "Ross River Fever" spreading down the coast of Australia. It will be important to find out soon, as tropical diseases are on the increase and are a major cause of mortality and illness in tropical areas."

For more information contact: Dr David Stern on 02 6125 0664 or 02 6247 5514 Genevieve Turville on (02) 6125 5575 or 0416 249 245

22/2002

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Last Modified Tue, July 16, 2002