Canberra, Friday 21 June 2002
Effects of ageing population "overestimated"
New research from Australian National University academics has revealed
that results tabled in the Government's Intergenerational Report for 2002-2003
have overestimated how much the rapidly ageing population will tax future
Australian Federal Budgets.
Professor Peter McDonald, Head of the ANU's Demography and Sociology
Program and ANU economist, Professor Steve Dowrick, have released a paper
commenting on the findings of the recent Government report.
Professor McDonald explains that the Government report is a projection
of what will happen if demographic, health and economic trends and government
policies remain much the same as they have been in the past and paints
an unnecessarily grim economic picture.
"The Government report, indicates that ageing will lead to severe
pressure on the Federal budget while the living standards of Australian
households, including households of aged persons, and State revenues increase
substantially," Professor McDonald said.
Professor Dowrick suggests that the report's outcomes are weighted to
the pessimistic side.
"The grounds for this suggestion are that the report, understates
the effect of a fall in unemployment, greatly underestimates the potential
for future increases in labour force participation rates and presents
an unduly certain picture of the levels of future costs of health and
aged care," Professor Dowrick said.
The Government's Intergenerational Report, tabled as one of a series
of 2002 Federal Budget papers is the first in what may become a series
of reports of this nature and derives from the application of a complex
model of future demography, future people-related federal outlays and
future labour force trends, including labour productivity, labour force
participation rates and unemployment.
The paper, "Comments on Intergenerational Report, 2002-03",
is available by request.
For more information please contact Professor Peter McDonald on 6125
2129 or 0419 437135 or Genevieve Turville, ANU Public Affairs on 6125
5575 or 0416 249 245.
No 68/2002
© 2000 Marketing & Communications Division,
The Australian National University.
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Last Modified Tue, July 16, 2002
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