Emissions flight path sounds warning signs: Academics

FRIDAY 2 MAY 2008

Only a major global economic slowdown, international conflict or the emergence of new emission-saving technology can prevent worldwide aviation emissions rising up to 144 per cent higher than current levels within 20 years, according to the authors of a report from The Australian National University.

The working paper, International aviation emissions to 2025: Can emissions be stabilised without restricting demand?, has been put together by Andrew Macintosh and Lailey Wallace from the ANU Centre for Climate Law and Policy. In the paper, they project civil aviation emissions to 2025 and look at the reductions that are necessary to offset rising international demand.

The findings suggest that international aviation carbon dioxide emissions will increase by more than 110 per cent between 2005 and 2025 and it’s highly unlikely that emissions can be stabilised at the levels required to meet climate targets without restricting demand.

Associate Director of the ANU Centre for Climate Law and Policy Andrew Macintosh said that urgent action was required from the international community if it wanted to keep aviation emissions within current projected safe levels.

“Under current policy settings, emissions are likely to increase significantly unless there is a major global economic downturn or other shock to the aviation market,” said Mr Macintosh.

“Projections based on the International Civil Aviation Organization’s 2007 traffic forecast suggest international aviation carbon dioxide emissions will increase by between 111 and 144 per cent between 2005 and 2025.”

To combat that increase, said Mr Macintosh, drastic action would need to be taken.

“To prevent emissions from increasing by more than 100 per cent between 2005 and 2025, fuel efficiency would need to improve by 32 per cent, requiring an average annual improvement of 1.9 per cent. To stabilise emissions at 2005 levels, fuel efficiency would need to improve by 65 per cent - 5.2 per cent a year. With current technology, improvements of this magnitude appear unlikely,” he said.

He added that while aviation was a relatively small carbon polluter, the projected growth in aviation traffic put it at odds with the global push to tackle emissions. “Compared to activities such as electricity generation and agriculture, aviation is a minor contributor to global warming. However, sharp increases in emissions from any sector are inconsistent with risk averse climate targets and arguably the objective of avoiding dangerous climate change.”

A copy of the working paper is available. For more information or to arrange interviews:
Andrew Macintosh – (02) 6125 3832 / 0403 804 540
Martyn Pearce, ANU Media Office – (02) 6125 5575 / 0416 249 245